🔍 Read the full analysis: Track These Six AI Figures As Big Tech Prepares To Report on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
Microsoft and Alphabet are due to report quarterly results on October 28, 2026, with Amazon scheduled for Thursday. The key tests are AI-related spending, cloud growth, free cash flow and capacity: SK hynix’s record profit shows strong demand for memory, but the payoff for large cloud companies remains uncertain.
Microsoft and Alphabet report quarterly results Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday, putting investor attention on whether revenue from artificial intelligence is keeping pace with the cost of building data centers. The preview arrives after South Korea’s SK hynix reported record third-quarter operating profit, while a Chinese AI and chip index has fallen sharply—two contrasting signals about the AI trade.
SK hynix said its preliminary, unaudited third-quarter revenue reached 104.6 trillion won, up 328% from a year earlier, while operating profit climbed to 83.3 trillion won, about 7.3 times the year-earlier figure. Its operating margin was 80%. Net profit, however, fell 58% from the prior quarter to 39.8 trillion won, which the company attributed to non-operating items. Its shares rose during the Seoul session, according to CNBC.
The company said long-term agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half of its 2027 and 2028 capacity. Its expectation that demand will exceed supply through 2030 is a company forecast, not an independently established outcome. SK hynix also announced a dividend and share buyback package; the source says the company plans about 100 trillion won in shareholder payouts for 2026, with part of the buyback allocated to employee compensation.
For the US earnings season, the source identifies six figures to track: SK hynix’s results as an indicator of memory demand; the breadth of S&P 500 earnings growth; planned capital spending by Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta; cloud growth relative to that spending; free cash flow and funding; and management commentary on capacity. The companies’ results and guidance are not yet available in this preview.
Infographic 01 · The boom in numbers
Record profits, narrow growth, rising bills.
Six numbers from company releases, FactSet and the Census Bureau, before Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report.
Who carries the earnings boom
Q3 2026 earnings growth, year over year. Blended: reported results plus estimates.
The Wall Street Journal (Dow Jones Market Data) puts the two chipmakers at 34% of the expected growth. Top five contributors per FactSet: Micron, Nvidia, Meta, EchoStar, Boeing.
What the buyers plan to spend in 2026
Capital spending guidance, US dollars. Bars show the top of each range.
Q3 consensus: Alphabet free cash flow −$2.3B on $55.2B capex; Amazon −$9.9B on $58.7B. Definitions differ slightly (Microsoft includes finance leases).
Shovel seller
- Revenue 104.6 trillion won, +328%
- Long-term deals cover >50% of 2027–28 capacity
- About 100 trillion won back to shareholders in 2026
Real economy
- Core capital goods orders +10.9% this year
- Computer orders +20.3% this year
- Census data do not label AI; semiconductors excluded from orders
Debt nerves
- Cost to insure Meta’s debt +177% this year, Amazon’s +129%
- Oracle: $117B long-term debt, rated BBB-
- Off-balance-sheet leases don’t show up as debt (S&P)
Sources: SK hynix 3Q26 release, 28 Oct 2026 (preliminary); FactSet, 19 Oct 2026; Alphabet Q2 call, 22 Jul 2026; Amazon via CNBC, 30 Jul 2026; Microsoft via CNBC, 29 Jul 2026; Meta Q3 release, 21 Oct 2026; FactSet consensus via CNBC, 27 Oct 2026; US Census Bureau, advance durable goods report, 27 Oct 2026. Capex sum and bar scaling: Thorsten Meyer.
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Testing AI Spending Against Revenue
The results matter because the AI investment cycle involves both large suppliers and the cloud companies buying chips, power and data-center capacity. SK hynix’s results show strong current earnings at one memory supplier, but they do not establish that every AI investment will earn an adequate return or that demand will continue at the same pace.
The source estimates that Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta together plan roughly $725 billion to $745 billion in capital spending in 2026, based on their guidance. That is a calculation across four companies, not a reported industry total. The comparison investors will be looking for is whether cloud revenue and other AI-related income grow enough to support this spending, and how much cash remains after investment.
There is also a concentration risk in the earnings picture. FactSet’s October 19 analysis said removing Micron and Nvidia would reduce its estimated S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth from 29.0% to 20.0%. The estimate still points to growth, but a relatively small number of companies account for a sizeable part of the expected increase.
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Contrasting Signals Across Markets
The preview, published October 28, draws a contrast between reported supplier results and market performance elsewhere. Reuters reported that China’s STAR50 index, which includes major AI and chip companies, had fallen 40% in under four months, erasing about $480 billion in market value. The source also says the index traded at around 100 times past earnings, citing Reuters. Those figures describe a specific index and period; they do not by themselves establish what will happen to US technology shares.
In the United States, FactSet’s blended estimate for S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth was 29.5% as of October 23, according to the source. The estimate is not a completed tally: many companies had yet to report. FactSet’s October 19 contributor analysis said Micron and Nvidia together made a substantial difference to the expected growth rate. The source also notes that comparisons for some other major contributors are affected by charges in the year-earlier period.
Some measures point to demand beyond financial markets. The US Census Bureau reported that shipments of core capital goods rose 1.2% in September and that orders for computers and related products were up 20.3% this year, according to the supplied material. Those figures provide economic context but do not directly measure how much AI revenue cloud companies are earning.
“Demand is expected to exceed supply through 2030.”
— SK hynix
The Payback Is Still Unproven
The central unknown is whether the spending on AI infrastructure will produce enough revenue and cash flow to justify its cost. The source says analysts expect Alphabet and Amazon to report negative free cash flow again for the third quarter, but those are expectations ahead of the companies’ reports, not confirmed results. Their actual cash flow, investment plans and explanations will become clearer when the companies release results.
It is also unclear whether strong memory demand will persist at current levels. SK hynix’s capacity agreements and demand outlook are company statements. Its preliminary results are unaudited, and its falling quarter-on-quarter net profit shows that operating profit does not tell the whole story. The source does not include the Big Tech results, so no conclusion about whether the investment cycle is paying off can yet be drawn.
Earnings Reports Set the Next Test
Microsoft and Alphabet are scheduled to report Wednesday, October 28, and Amazon Thursday, October 29, according to the source. Their reported cloud growth, capital-spending guidance, free cash flow and comments about capacity will provide the next evidence on whether AI demand is translating into sales and cash generation. Meta’s spending plans also form part of the source’s four-company capital-spending estimate, though the supplied material does not give its reporting date.
The preview says a short, dated update will be added after the results are released. Until those reports arrive, the figures are a snapshot of expectations and previously reported data—not a final verdict on the profitability of AI investment.
Key Questions
Which Big Tech companies are due to report?
Microsoft and Alphabet are scheduled to report on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and Amazon on Thursday, according to the supplied source.
What six figures should readers watch?
The preview points to SK hynix’s results, the breadth of S&P 500 earnings growth, planned capital spending, cloud growth compared with that spending, free cash flow and funding, and management comments about capacity.
What did SK hynix report?
It reported preliminary, unaudited third-quarter revenue of 104.6 trillion won and operating profit of 83.3 trillion won. Operating profit was about 7.3 times the year-earlier amount; net profit fell 58% from the previous quarter.
Does the preview show that AI investment is already paying off?
No. SK hynix’s results show strong earnings at a major memory supplier, but the source says the payoff for cloud companies’ large investments remains unproven. The upcoming reports may clarify revenue, spending and cash flow, but do not establish future returns.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
