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TD Securities says copper faces further downside after Democratic gains in the U.S. midterm elections raised doubts about potential import tariffs and projected data-centre demand. London copper was about $13,779 per tonne late Friday, its lowest since July. Mine disruptions and constrained supply outside the U.S. could limit any decline, while the tariff proposals remain partly unresolved.
TD Securities says copper could fall further after Democratic gains in the U.S. midterm elections weakened expectations for aggressive import tariffs and raised questions about projected demand from data centres. Three-month London Metal Exchange copper futures fell to about $13,779 per tonne late Friday, their lowest level since July, as traders reconsidered U.S. stockpiling and demand prospects.
The price was down from an intraday peak of almost $6.80 per lb. in September, according to the report. TD Securities managing director and global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said in a Thursday note that the metal faced additional downside risk. He wrote that a further $500 per tonne decline would not be a major surprise. Relative to Thursday’s London close of $13,843 per tonne, that would amount to about 3.6%, a calculation based on the figures in the report.
TD’s concern is that political and market changes could reduce incentives to send copper into U.S. warehouses before potential tariffs take effect. The bank estimates U.S. copper inventories at about 1.6 million tonnes. If the price premium for copper in the United States over overseas markets fades, further imports for stockpiling could slow for a significant period. That would not automatically mean a matching fall in industrial copper use, the report says.
Fitch Group’s BMI research and data unit also identifies U.S. tariff uncertainty as a near-term catalyst for prices, but says supply constraints and electrification demand may cushion a correction. BMI expects copper to average $13,500 per tonne this year and $12,900 in 2027. Those are its forecasts, not confirmed future prices.
Tariffs and Stockpiles Set the Near-Term Tone
The stakes go beyond the day-to-day price move. Expectations of tariffs have helped redirect copper toward U.S. warehouses, while buyers and sellers weigh whether metal could become more valuable inside the country if duties are imposed. A change in expectations could alter trade flows and the supply available in other markets, even if underlying industrial consumption does not change at the same pace.
Data-centre construction is another source of uncertainty because it is expected to add to electricity and infrastructure demand, including demand for copper. TD says political resistance to new data centres could make that contribution fall short of current projections. This is a risk to forecasts, not evidence that data-centre demand has already declined. For consumers, manufacturers and miners, the combination makes the balance between expected demand and available supply harder to judge.
There is a counterweight to bearish pressure. Mine disruptions and tight supplies outside the United States may limit how far prices fall, BMI says. The copper market therefore faces competing forces: less confidence in tariff-driven U.S. stockpiling and some demand forecasts on one side, and production constraints and electrification needs on the other.
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How Tariffs Redirected Copper Trade
Washington’s July 2025 copper proclamation set out possible duties on refined copper of 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, subject to a later presidential determination. Those proposed refined-copper levies have not been enacted. Separate 50% duties on certain semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products took effect in August 2025, according to the source report.
In anticipation of possible tariffs, higher Comex prices relative to London encouraged shipments into U.S. warehouses. BMI reported that Comex inventories rose about 62% from January through Wednesday and that Comex held about 70% of global exchange copper stocks on Oct. 30. Those figures describe inventories and exchange stocks, not total global copper supply.
The market is also exposed to concentrated production and trade. U.S. Geological Survey data cited in the report show Chile supplied 68% of U.S. refined copper imports during 2021–24, followed by Canada at 16%. China produced an estimated 14 million tonnes of refined copper in 2025, nearly half of global output. BMI reported that China’s Yangshan import premium exceeded $200 per tonne on Wednesday, the highest since records began in 2017, as buyers sought immediately available metal.
“With many states slated for significant AI data center development turning blue, and opposition to new construction potentially growing, AI-driven copper demand could fall meaningfully short of current projections.”
— Bart Melek, TD Securities
Policy and Demand Risks Remain Open
The election result does not itself change the tariff schedule. The possible refined-copper duties remain subject to a later presidential determination, and the source report says they have not been enacted. It is not clear whether the administration will proceed with the proposed rates, alter them or decline to impose them. The outlook for the separate duties already in force is also distinct from the unresolved refined-copper proposal.
Nor is the eventual scale of data-centre-related copper demand established. TD’s warning concerns the possibility that political resistance to construction could lower demand relative to forecasts. The report does not quantify how much demand could be lost, or when any difference would appear. It also remains uncertain how quickly a reduction in U.S. stockpiling would affect prices, since imports for inventories and copper consumed by industry are not the same measure.
Finally, forecasts differ from realized market outcomes. BMI’s price projections and its assessment of mine production are estimates. Mine disruptions could support prices, but their duration and effect on available supply remain developing factors.
Watch the Tariff Decision and Mine Output
Market attention is likely to remain on Washington’s decision-making over refined-copper duties and on whether price differences between U.S. and overseas markets continue to encourage shipments into American warehouses. A presidential determination would clarify the proposed tariff path; until then, traders will be reacting to changing expectations rather than a finalized refined-copper levy.
Investors and copper buyers will also be watching inventory movements, Chinese premiums for immediately available metal, and developments at mines cited by BMI. The research unit cut its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.1% from 2.4%, citing weakness in Chile and constraints at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg operation in Indonesia and Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Those production estimates and operational conditions may change, so they do not settle the direction of prices.
The next clearer reading will come from how policy signals, stockpile flows and mine supply develop together. For now, TD’s warning points to downside risk, while BMI’s supply concerns suggest that any correction could be cushioned.
Key Questions
Why does TD Securities expect copper to fall further?
TD says Democratic gains have weakened expectations for aggressive U.S. import tariffs and raised questions about future data-centre demand. If incentives to stockpile copper in the United States fade, additional import flows into U.S. warehouses could slow.
How far could copper fall, according to TD?
Bart Melek said another $500 per tonne decline would not be a major surprise. Based on the Thursday close cited in the report, that would be about 3.6%; it is a possibility described by TD, not a price target or guarantee.
Have the proposed U.S. refined-copper tariffs taken effect?
No. The report says the proposed refined-copper duties of 15% from January 2027, potentially rising to 30% in 2028, remain subject to a subsequent presidential determination and have not been enacted. Separate 50% duties on certain semi-finished and copper-intensive derivative products took effect in August 2025.
What could keep copper prices from falling further?
BMI says mine disruptions and tight supply outside the United States could cushion a correction, alongside electrification demand. It lowered its forecast for 2026 mine production growth to 1.1%, citing constraints and weakness in several producing regions and operations.
Does slower U.S. stockpiling mean industrial copper use is falling?
Not necessarily. The report says slower imports for stockpiles would not automatically produce an equivalent decline in industrial consumption. The scale and timing of any effect on overall demand remain unclear.
Source: northernminer.com
