TL;DR
The European Central Bank’s September Consumer Expectations Survey showed median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rising to 3.1%, while expectations for economic growth weakened and the expected unemployment rate increased. Longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged, and consumers also anticipated faster income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank reported on 23 October that euro area consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while their outlook for economic growth weakened, following the trend in the August survey. The monthly survey also found a higher expected unemployment rate and increased expectations for income, spending and home-price growth, offering policymakers a snapshot of household views across the euro area.
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Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months edged up to 3.6%, from 3.5% in August. Longer-run expectations did not change: consumers placed inflation at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Consumers expected nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth also rose, to 3.7% from 3.6%; perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are survey expectations and perceptions, not recorded changes in household income or expenditure.
The outlook for activity and jobs moved in the opposite direction. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5%, from -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead climbed to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the coming year, up from 3.4%, and left their mortgage-rate expectation unchanged at 4.9%. The ECB also reported that net household reports of tighter credit access increased, both for the previous 12 months and for the year ahead, echoing findings in its survey on credit terms and conditions.
Household Views on Prices and Jobs
The results show households anticipating slightly higher near-term inflation alongside a weaker growth outlook and rising unemployment expectations. For readers, those measures matter because expectations can shape decisions about spending, saving, borrowing and wage demands. They also give the ECB another source of information as it assesses economic conditions and price pressures.
The figures do not establish what inflation, growth or unemployment will actually be. Nor do they indicate a change in ECB policy. The survey records what participating consumers said they perceived or expected; it complements other economic data used by the central bank. The contrast between higher expected spending growth and weaker expected economic growth is a reported set of views, not evidence on its own of how households will behave.
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How the September Survey Was Conducted
The September results came from fieldwork conducted between 27 August and 28 September 2026. The ECB describes the Consumer Expectations Survey as a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland.
The central bank publishes country and euro area results monthly and uses the survey for policy analysis alongside other sources. Unless otherwise stated, the release’s statistics refer to a 2% winsorised mean, a measure that limits the influence of extreme observations. The ECB cautions that survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
Income differences appeared across several measures. Respondents in the lowest income quintile reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the highest quintile. Lower-income households also expected higher unemployment and home-price growth, and higher mortgage rates. These are reported differences between survey groups, not explanations for why their expectations differed.
“Median expectations for inflation three years ahead and median expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged.”
— European Central Bank, September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey release
Limits of the Survey Readings
The survey reports consumer perceptions and expectations, not official forecasts or confirmed future outcomes. The release does not identify what caused the monthly changes, and the figures alone cannot show whether respondents’ views will translate into actual spending, hiring or borrowing decisions. Although uncertainty about near-term inflation increased slightly, the ECB release does not provide a numerical measure for that change in the summary.
The survey covers adults in 11 euro area countries, so its findings should be read within that stated scope. It does not provide a direct result for every household or explain the differences between income groups. The release also does not announce a monetary-policy decision or specify how policymakers will respond to the results.
October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the next survey release, covering October 2026, for 27 November. Readers and policymakers will be able to compare its results with September’s readings, including whether near-term inflation expectations and unemployment concerns continue to move upward.
The September release says the underlying microdata are available through the survey’s data and methodological information section. The next monthly results will add another observation, but the ECB has not stated in this release that any particular outcome or policy action is expected.
Key Questions
What did euro area consumers expect inflation to be over the next year?
The median expectation was 3.1% in September 2026, up from 3.0% in August, according to the ECB survey.
Did expectations for longer-term inflation change?
No. Median inflation expectations were 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead, unchanged from August.
What did consumers expect for growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
When will the ECB publish its next consumer survey?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
